Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt

Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt
(Project Syndicate, 2/13/11)

  • 元米国務省シニアで現The Council for Foreign Relationsのトップ、Richard Haassによる寄稿。
  • 「ムバラク辞任には大きな意味があるが、これがエジプトの今後を決定する出来事ではない。これは始まりの終わりであって、エジプト情勢が及ぼす近隣諸国への影響は一貫性の無いものになると予測される。エジプトで起こった変化が歴史的にどんなインパクトを持つかについては不透明、現時点で手放しでポジティブになる段階ではない。」


Revolutionary movements invariably split into factions. Their sole common objective is the ouster of the existing regime. As soon as this goal comes close to being achieved, elements of the opposition begin to position themselves for the second phase of the struggle and the coming competition for power. We are already beginning to see signs of this in Egypt and will see more in the days and weeks to come.



Outsiders have had and will have only limited influence over the course of events. Over the past 30 years, intermittent calls by the United States for limited political reform were largely rebuffed. Once the crisis began, the people in the streets, Mubarak himself, and above all the army have been the principal protagonists. Moving forward, it will again be Egyptians who will largely determine their own path.

In this vein, outsiders should be careful of intervening too much, especially in public. It is up to Egyptians to define for themselves how much and what kind of democracy is established. Outsiders can assist – for example, with ideas for constitutional reform or voting procedures – but this should be done privately and as suggestions, not demands.




Change in Iraq was imposed from the outside by force, whereas change in Egypt has come from within and has largely been accomplished by consent rather than coercion. But it is too soon to know whether change in Egypt will be far-reaching and lasting, much less positive, and thus too soon to assess its historic impact.


0 件のコメント: